FairValue

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Francis

Coquelin

DMFrance · FC Nantes

№ 74869Emerging €218k +1.17

Player dossierLigue 1

FrancisCoquelin

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Nantes
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
France
Age
35
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Coquelin at €700k. Model A, which never saw Coquelin during training, estimates €218k: the market value is 221% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €242k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.17A €218k▲ +1.06B €242k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
879
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
11/22
Min / app
40
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Coquelin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €218k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Francis Coquelin's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 57th, Assists per 90 85th, Minutes, two years 11th, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 18th, European club minutes 30th57thGoals85thAssists11thMinutes21stStarts18thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.20 this player0.09 midfielder median85th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Mar 2010
Peak
€24M
Dec 2019
Model target
€700k
Jun 2026
Valuations
38
8 club changes
Jun 2026€700kFC NantesValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €700k, FC Nantes. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-03-29€100kArsenal FC Reserves
2010-07-16€200kArsenal FC Reserves
2010-12-28€1MFC Lorient
2011-05-24€1.3MFC Lorient
2012-02-06€3MArsenal FC
2012-06-24€3MArsenal FC
2013-01-28€4MArsenal FC
2013-07-02€4MArsenal FC
2014-02-12€3MSC Freiburg
2014-08-12€3MArsenal FC
2015-02-12€4.5MArsenal FC
2015-07-01€7MArsenal FC
2016-02-09€12MArsenal FC
2016-08-01€13MArsenal FC
2017-02-20€15MArsenal FC
2017-06-28€15MArsenal FC
2018-01-02€12MArsenal FC
2018-05-30€12MValencia CF
2018-12-21€15MValencia CF
2019-06-11€17.5MValencia CF
2019-09-10€20MValencia CF
2019-12-20€24MValencia CF
2020-04-08€19MValencia CF
2020-07-23€14MValencia CF
2020-10-08€8MVillarreal CF
2021-01-05€6MVillarreal CF
2021-06-10€5MVillarreal CF
2021-12-30€5MVillarreal CF
2022-06-03€5MVillarreal CF
2022-11-07€5MVillarreal CF
2023-06-13€3MVillarreal CF
2023-10-13€2.5MVillarreal CF
2023-12-22€2MVillarreal CF
2024-06-07€1.5MVillarreal CF
2024-10-16€1MWithout Club
2025-06-03€900kFC Nantes
2025-12-15€800kFC Nantes
2026-06-01€700kFC Nantes

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.166

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 5% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 23% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Coquelin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).