FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Savinho

LWBrazil · Manchester City

№ 743591World Class €42.3M −0.19

Player dossierPremier League

Savinho

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Manchester City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
22
Height
176 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Savinho at €35M. Model A, which never saw Savinho during training, estimates €42.3M: the market value is 17% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €42.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.19A €42.3M▼ −0.20B €42.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
82
Minutes
4,481
Goals
7
Assists
15
Started
49/82
Min / app
55
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Savinho…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €35M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €35MModel A €42.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Savinho's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 21st, Assists per 90 90th, Minutes, two years 86th, Starts 51st, Minutes, last 365 days 66th, European club minutes 92nd21stGoals90thAssists86thMinutes51stStarts66thRecent92ndEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

28% this player0% attacker median92nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€3M
Feb 2021
Peak
€55M
Dec 2024
Model target
€35M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
3 club changes
Jun 2026€35MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €35M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-02-09€3MClube Atlético Mineiro
2021-05-28€5MClube Atlético Mineiro
2021-12-17€5MClube Atlético Mineiro
2022-04-06€6MClube Atlético Mineiro
2022-11-11€6MPSV Eindhoven
2023-06-23€5MPSV Eindhoven
2023-10-13€20MGirona FC
2023-12-22€30MGirona FC
2024-03-21€40MGirona FC
2024-06-07€50MGirona FC
2024-12-16€55MManchester City
2025-05-30€50MManchester City
2025-12-09€45MManchester City
2026-03-09€40MManchester City
2026-06-03€35MManchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.190

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 79% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 94% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Savinho appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).