FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Brahim Díaz

Brahim

Díaz

RWMorocco · Real Madrid

№ 314678World Class €27.5M +0.24

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

BrahimDíaz

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Real Madrid
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Morocco
Age
26
Height
170 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Díaz at €35M. Model A, which never saw Díaz during training, estimates €27.5M: the market value is 27% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €29.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.24A €27.5M▲ +0.18B €29.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
97
Minutes
3,928
Goals
8
Assists
17
Started
40/97
Min / app
40
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Díaz…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €35M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €35MModel A €27.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Brahim Díaz's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 32nd, Assists per 90 97th, Minutes, two years 80th, Starts 23rd, Minutes, last 365 days 65th, European club minutes 90th32ndGoals97thAssists80thMinutes23rdStarts65thRecent90thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.39 this player0.15 attacker median97th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2.5M
Mar 2018
Peak
€45M
Mar 2025
Model target
€35M
Jun 2026
Valuations
24
3 club changes
Jun 2026€35MReal MadridValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €35M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-03-23€2.5MManchester City
2018-05-28€5MManchester City
2018-12-19€5MManchester City
2019-02-28€17MReal Madrid
2019-06-11€17MReal Madrid
2019-12-20€15MReal Madrid
2020-04-08€13.5MReal Madrid
2020-10-29€14MAC Milan
2020-12-29€14MAC Milan
2021-06-03€15MAC Milan
2021-10-14€23MAC Milan
2021-12-28€25MAC Milan
2022-03-15€22MAC Milan
2022-06-07€18MAC Milan
2022-11-11€20MAC Milan
2023-06-15€20MAC Milan
2023-12-22€20MReal Madrid
2024-03-21€35MReal Madrid
2024-06-07€40MReal Madrid
2024-12-27€35MReal Madrid
2025-03-21€45MReal Madrid
2025-06-09€40MReal Madrid
2025-12-12€35MReal Madrid
2026-06-05€35MReal Madrid

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.243

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 92% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 94% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Díaz appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).