FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jorne

Spileers

CBBelgium · Club Brugge KV

№ 743381Established €5M −0.50

Player dossierPro League

JorneSpileers

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Club Brugge KV
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
21
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Spileers at €3M. Model A, which never saw Spileers during training, estimates €5M: the market value is 39% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.65. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.50A €5M▼ −0.94B €7.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
2,270
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
23/42
Min / app
54
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Spileers…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jorne Spileers's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 80th, Assists per 90 50th, Minutes, two years 39th, Starts 11th, Minutes, last 365 days 52nd, European club minutes 84th80thGoals50thAssists39thMinutes11thStarts52ndRecent84thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

19% this player0% defender median84th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Oct 2022
Peak
€5M
Dec 2023
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
1 club change
Jun 2026€3MClub Brugge KVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Club Brugge KV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-10-05€500kClub NXT
2022-11-04€800kClub NXT
2023-06-09€2.5MClub Brugge KV
2023-10-23€4.5MClub Brugge KV
2023-12-19€5MClub Brugge KV
2024-06-04€5MClub Brugge KV
2024-10-02€4MClub Brugge KV
2024-12-11€3MClub Brugge KV
2025-06-12€2MClub Brugge KV
2025-10-01€3.5MClub Brugge KV
2025-12-10€3MClub Brugge KV
2026-06-04€3MClub Brugge KV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.502

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 67% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Spileers appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).