David
Alaba
CBAustria · Real Madrid
Close-up
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierLaLiga
DavidAlaba
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Real Madrid
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Austria
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 180 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
LaLigaReading the valuation
The market values Alaba at €3M. Model A, which never saw Alaba during training, estimates €1.9M: the market value is 57% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.57. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 30
- Minutes
- 1,174
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 13/30
- Min / app
- 39
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Alaba…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
25% this player0% defender median90th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Jun 2008
- Peak
- €65M
- Dec 2019
- Model target
- €3M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 46
- 5 club changes
Jun 2026: €3M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-06-24 | €200k | Austria Vienna Reserves |
| 2009-10-13 | €800k | FC Bayern Munich II |
| 2010-01-11 | €1M | FC Bayern Munich II |
| 2010-07-16 | €2M | Bayern Munich |
| 2011-01-12 | €2M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2011-03-01 | €3M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2011-06-29 | €5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2012-01-23 | €8.5M | Bayern Munich |
| 2012-06-29 | €16M | Bayern Munich |
| 2013-01-13 | €22M | Bayern Munich |
| 2013-06-30 | €28M | Bayern Munich |
| 2013-11-05 | €32M | Bayern Munich |
| 2014-07-10 | €35M | Bayern Munich |
| 2015-02-04 | €38M | Bayern Munich |
| 2015-07-01 | €38M | Bayern Munich |
| 2015-10-16 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2016-02-15 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2016-06-01 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2016-07-22 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2017-02-07 | €40M | Bayern Munich |
| 2017-06-19 | €38M | Bayern Munich |
| 2017-12-28 | €38M | Bayern Munich |
| 2018-04-04 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2018-06-05 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2018-12-18 | €55M | Bayern Munich |
| 2019-06-05 | €55M | Bayern Munich |
| 2019-12-17 | €65M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-04-08 | €52M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-07-08 | €65M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-02-10 | €55M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-05-27 | €55M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-12-30 | €55M | Real Madrid |
| 2022-06-03 | €55M | Real Madrid |
| 2022-11-07 | €55M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-03-23 | €50M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-06-13 | €40M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-12-22 | €30M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-03-21 | €25M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-06-07 | €20M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-10-11 | €15M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-12-27 | €10M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-06-09 | €6M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-10-02 | €4M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-12-12 | €4M | Real Madrid |
| 2026-03-16 | €3.5M | Real Madrid |
| 2026-06-05 | €3M | Real Madrid |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.448
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Alaba appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- StegenGKGirona FC · LaLiga€3M
- VlachodimosGKSevilla FC · LaLiga€3M
- DarderCMRCD Mallorca · LaLiga€3M
- MorenoLBGirona FC · LaLiga€3M
- VrijCBInter Milan · defenders€3M
- KeaneCBEverton FC · defenders€3M
- WeiserRBSV Werder Bremen · defenders€3M
- CanCBBorussia Dortmund · defenders€3M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).