Welington
LBBrazil · Southampton FC
Player dossierPremier League
Welington
LBLeft-BackDefender
- Club
- Southampton FC
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 170 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 3 Dec 2025
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Welington at €3M. Model A, which never saw Welington during training, estimates €5.7M: the market value is 47% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.89. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €435k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 11
- Minutes
- 570
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 7/11
- Min / app
- 52
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Welington…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
0% this player0% defender median30th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €1M
- May 2021
- Peak
- €4M
- Dec 2023
- Model target
- €3M
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 13
- 1 club change
Dec 2025: €3M, Southampton FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-28 | €1M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2021-12-17 | €1.5M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2022-04-06 | €2.5M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2022-08-19 | €2.5M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2022-11-14 | €2.5M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2023-04-07 | €3M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2023-07-25 | €3M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2023-12-11 | €4M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2024-03-28 | €4M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2024-06-17 | €3.5M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2024-12-09 | €3.5M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2025-05-30 | €3M | Southampton FC |
| 2025-12-03 | €3M | Southampton FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.636
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 12% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Welington appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- WelbeckCFBrighton & Hove Albion · Premier League€3M
- KeaneCBEverton FC · Premier League€3M
- DaviesCBTottenham Hotspur · Premier League€3M
- JiménezCFFulham FC · Premier League€3M
- AlabaCBReal Madrid · defenders€3M
- VrijCBInter Milan · defenders€3M
- WeiserRBSV Werder Bremen · defenders€3M
- CanCBBorussia Dortmund · defenders€3M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).