Gavin
Molloy
CBIreland · Aberdeen FC
Player dossierPremiership
GavinMolloy
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Aberdeen FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Ireland
- Age
- 24
- Height
- –
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Molloy at €600k. Model A, which never saw Molloy during training, estimates €463k: the market value is 29% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €731k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 34
- Minutes
- 2,672
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 29/34
- Min / app
- 79
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Molloy…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
2% this player0% defender median63rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Dec 2021
- Peak
- €600k
- Mar 2025
- Model target
- €600k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 11
- 1 club change
May 2026: €600k, Aberdeen FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-28 | €25k | Shelbourne FC |
| 2022-07-04 | €25k | Shelbourne FC |
| 2022-12-27 | €50k | Shelbourne FC |
| 2023-06-22 | €50k | Shelbourne FC |
| 2023-12-20 | €50k | Shelbourne FC |
| 2024-06-20 | €125k | Shelbourne FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €500k | Aberdeen FC |
| 2025-03-12 | €600k | Aberdeen FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €600k | Aberdeen FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €600k | Aberdeen FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €600k | Aberdeen FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.258
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 63% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 22% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Molloy appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MillerLMFalkirk FC · Premiership€600k
- SpittalCMHeart of Midlothian FC · Premiership€600k
- CaddenLMHibernian FC · Premiership€600k
- KnoesterCBAberdeen FC · Premiership€600k
- SilvestriRBBologna FC 1909 · defenders€600k
- JungCBSC Freiburg · defenders€600k
- TrimmelRB1.FC Union Berlin · defenders€600k
- BellCB1.FSV Mainz 05 · defenders€600k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).