FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Yeni

Ngbakoto

RWDR Congo · Vejle Boldklub

№ 111053Emerging €80k +0.92

Player dossierSuperliga

YeniNgbakoto

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Vejle Boldklub
League
Superliga
Nationality
DR Congo
Age
33
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
16 Jun 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Ngbakoto at €200k. Model A, which never saw Ngbakoto during training, estimates €80k: the market value is 151% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.51. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €371k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.92A €80k▼ −0.62B €371k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
1,647
Goals
5
Assists
2
Started
19/37
Min / app
45
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ngbakoto…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €80k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Yeni Ngbakoto's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 52nd, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 35th, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 22nd, European club minutes 28th52ndGoals35thAssists35thMinutes37thStarts22ndRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.27 this player0.26 attacker median52nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2009
Peak
€3M
Nov 2014
Model target
€200k
Jun 2025
Valuations
32
7 club changes
Jun 2025€200kVejle BoldklubValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2025: €200k, Vejle Boldklub. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-08-06€50kUnknown
2009-09-04€150kUnknown
2010-10-24€250kFC Metz
2011-02-04€400kFC Metz
2011-05-30€400kFC Metz
2011-12-25€400kFC Metz
2012-06-01€300kFC Metz
2014-01-13€1.3MFC Metz
2014-08-07€2MFC Metz
2014-11-20€3MFC Metz
2015-01-14€3MFC Metz
2015-06-06€2.5MFC Metz
2015-09-06€2MFC Metz
2016-02-04€2.5MFC Metz
2016-07-13€2.5MFC Metz
2017-02-27€2MQueens Park Rangers
2017-09-18€2MQueens Park Rangers
2018-01-24€2MEA Guingamp
2018-06-04€2MEA Guingamp
2018-12-17€2MEA Guingamp
2019-06-03€1.5MEA Guingamp
2020-01-06€1.3MEA Guingamp
2020-04-08€1MEA Guingamp
2020-11-11€1MEA Guingamp
2021-02-12€1MPanathinaikos FC
2021-11-01€750kPanathinaikos FC
2022-06-02€600kAS Nancy-Lorraine
2023-04-05€500kWestern Sydney Wanderers
2023-12-21€500kVejle Boldklub
2024-06-10€400kVejle Boldklub
2024-12-09€300kVejle Boldklub
2025-06-16€200kVejle Boldklub

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.919

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 7% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 4% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ngbakoto appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).