FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Finn

Yeats

AMScotland · Falkirk FC

№ 719685Emerging €294k +0.53

Player dossierPremiership

FinnYeats

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Falkirk FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
22
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Yeats at €500k. Model A, which never saw Yeats during training, estimates €294k: the market value is 70% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.70. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €608k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.53A €294k▼ −0.19B €608k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
18
Minutes
1,130
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
15/18
Min / app
63
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Yeats…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €294k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Finn Yeats's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 88th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 16th, Starts 76th, Minutes, last 365 days 36th, European club minutes 30th88thGoals8thAssists16thMinutes76thStarts36thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.24 this player0.08 midfielder median88th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2024
Peak
€500k
May 2026
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
6
0 club changes
May 2026€500kFalkirk FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, Falkirk FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-10-04€100kFalkirk FC
2024-12-03€200kFalkirk FC
2025-06-17€200kFalkirk FC
2025-12-10€200kFalkirk FC
2026-03-05€400kFalkirk FC
2026-05-20€500kFalkirk FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.530

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 55% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 16% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Yeats appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).