FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Peter

Federico

RWDominican Republic · Real Valladolid CF

№ 710004Emerging €908k +0.50

Player dossierLaLiga

PeterFederico

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Real Valladolid CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Dominican Republic
Age
23
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
30 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Federico at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Federico during training, estimates €908k: the market value is 65% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.65. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €813k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.50A €908k▲ +0.61B €813k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
1,418
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
11/37
Min / app
38
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Federico…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €908k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Peter Federico's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 9th, Assists per 90 19th, Minutes, two years 29th, Starts 10th, Minutes, last 365 days 7th, European club minutes 28th9thGoals19thAssists29thMinutes10thStarts7thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

1,418 this player2,242 attacker median29th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Dec 2020
Peak
€3M
Mar 2024
Model target
€1.5M
Dec 2025
Valuations
15
3 club changes
Dec 2025€1.5MReal Valladolid CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1.5M, Real Valladolid CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-12-08€300kReal Madrid Castilla
2021-01-08€300kReal Madrid Castilla
2021-06-30€300kReal Madrid Castilla
2021-12-30€700kReal Madrid Castilla
2022-03-21€1MReal Madrid Castilla
2022-06-29€1MReal Madrid Castilla
2022-12-29€1MReal Madrid Castilla
2023-06-30€1MReal Madrid Castilla
2023-12-20€1MReal Madrid Castilla
2024-03-21€3MValencia CF
2024-06-07€3MValencia CF
2024-12-27€2MGetafe CF
2025-03-21€1.5MGetafe CF
2025-06-09€1.2MGetafe CF
2025-12-30€1.5MReal Valladolid CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.502

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 20% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Federico appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).