Nico
Serrano
LWSpain · Athletic Bilbao
Player dossierLaLiga
NicoSerrano
LWLeft WingerAttack
- Club
- Athletic Bilbao
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Spain
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Serrano at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Serrano during training, estimates €2.9M: the market value is 48% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.92. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 34
- Minutes
- 842
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 7/34
- Min / app
- 25
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Serrano…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
19% this player0% attacker median82nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Oct 2020
- Peak
- €2.5M
- Jun 2022
- Model target
- €1.5M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 17
- 6 club changes
Jun 2026: €1.5M, Athletic Bilbao. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-08 | €50k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2020-11-23 | €1M | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2021-01-07 | €1M | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2021-06-30 | €1M | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2021-12-30 | €1M | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2022-03-21 | €2M | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2022-06-03 | €2.5M | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2022-06-29 | €2.5M | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2022-12-29 | €2.5M | CD Mirandés |
| 2023-03-24 | €1.5M | CD Mirandés |
| 2023-06-14 | €1.5M | CD Mirandés |
| 2023-12-15 | €1M | PEC Zwolle |
| 2024-06-24 | €1.4M | Racing Ferrol |
| 2024-12-27 | €1.2M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2025-06-24 | €1.2M | Sporting Gijón |
| 2025-12-12 | €1.5M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2026-06-05 | €1.5M | Athletic Bilbao |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.652
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Serrano appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GómezAMCA Osasuna · LaLiga€1.5M
- ElustondoCBReal Sociedad · LaLiga€1.5M
- AsanoRWRCD Mallorca · LaLiga€1.5M
- GarcíaLWRayo Vallecano · LaLiga€1.5M
- GregoritschCFFC Augsburg · attackers€1.5M
- BelottiCFCagliari Calcio · attackers€1.5M
- BeckerLW1.FSV Mainz 05 · attackers€1.5M
- GlatzelCFHamburger SV · attackers€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).