FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Lorenzo

Bernasconi

LMItaly · Atalanta BC

№ 708635Elite €14.7M +0.31

Player dossierSerie A

LorenzoBernasconi

LMLeft MidfieldMidfield

Club
Atalanta BC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
22
Height
190 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bernasconi at €20M. Model A, which never saw Bernasconi during training, estimates €14.7M: the market value is 36% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.31A €14.7M▲ +1.22B €5.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
2,668
Goals
0
Assists
3
Started
30/37
Min / app
72
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bernasconi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €14.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Lorenzo Bernasconi's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 53rd, Minutes, two years 51st, Starts 72nd, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 97th10thGoals53rdAssists51stMinutes72ndStarts84thRecent97thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

32% this player0% midfielder median97th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jun 2022
Peak
€20M
May 2026
Model target
€20M
May 2026
Valuations
10
2 club changes
May 2026€20MAtalanta BCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €20M, Atalanta BC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-06-23€100kAtalanta Primavera
2023-06-13€75kAtalanta Primavera
2023-12-21€100kAtalanta U23
2024-06-17€125kAtalanta U23
2024-12-19€400kAtalanta U23
2025-06-19€800kAtalanta U23
2025-10-07€2.5MAtalanta BC
2025-12-23€4MAtalanta BC
2026-03-24€15MAtalanta BC
2026-05-29€20MAtalanta BC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.306

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 82% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 88% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bernasconi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).