FairValue

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Portrait of Mandela Keita

Mandela

Keita

DMBelgium · Parma Calcio 1913

№ 707844Elite €13.8M +0.37

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

MandelaKeita

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Parma Calcio 1913
League
Serie A
Nationality
Belgium
Age
24
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Keita at €20M. Model A, which never saw Keita during training, estimates €13.8M: the market value is 45% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.45. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.37A €13.8M▲ +0.24B €15.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
5,229
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
64/75
Min / app
70
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Keita…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €13.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mandela Keita's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 20th, Assists per 90 29th, Minutes, two years 89th, Starts 79th, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 30th20thGoals29thAssists89thMinutes79thStarts94thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,166 this player1,541 midfielder median94th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Aug 2021
Peak
€20M
May 2026
Model target
€20M
May 2026
Valuations
15
2 club changes
May 2026€20MParma Calcio 1913Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €20M, Parma Calcio 1913. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-08-06€150kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2021-10-06€400kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2022-01-06€700kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2022-04-12€2MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2022-11-04€2MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2023-03-22€3.5MRoyal Antwerp FC
2023-06-09€7MRoyal Antwerp FC
2023-10-23€11MRoyal Antwerp FC
2023-12-19€11MRoyal Antwerp FC
2024-06-04€13MRoyal Antwerp FC
2024-12-18€11MParma Calcio 1913
2025-06-17€12MParma Calcio 1913
2025-12-23€12MParma Calcio 1913
2026-03-24€18MParma Calcio 1913
2026-05-29€20MParma Calcio 1913

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.370

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 82% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 88% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Keita appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).