Daniele
Ghilardi
CBItaly · AS Roma
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierSerie A
DanieleGhilardi
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- AS Roma
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Italy
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 189 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Ghilardi at €18M. Model A, which never saw Ghilardi during training, estimates €18.6M: the market value is 3% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 52
- Minutes
- 3,566
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 35/52
- Min / app
- 69
- Cards
- 10Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ghilardi…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
10% this player0% defender median72nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Jun 2022
- Peak
- €18M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €18M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €18M, AS Roma. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-23 | €250k | Hellas Verona Primavera |
| 2022-12-19 | €225k | Mantova 1911 |
| 2023-06-19 | €500k | Mantova 1911 |
| 2023-12-27 | €1M | UC Sampdoria |
| 2024-06-03 | €1.6M | UC Sampdoria |
| 2024-12-18 | €1.6M | Hellas Verona |
| 2025-03-25 | €4M | Hellas Verona |
| 2025-06-17 | €5M | Hellas Verona |
| 2025-10-07 | €8M | AS Roma |
| 2025-12-23 | €8M | AS Roma |
| 2026-03-24 | €15M | AS Roma |
| 2026-05-29 | €18M | AS Roma |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.032
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 81% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 89% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ghilardi appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- RabiotCMAC Milan · Serie A€18M
- GimenezCFAC Milan · Serie A€18M
- ComuzzoCBACF Fiorentina · Serie A€18M
- EkhatorCFGenoa CFC · Serie A€18M
- AntonCBBorussia Dortmund · defenders€18M
- AinaRBNottingham Forest · defenders€18M
- HernándezLBParis Saint-Germain · defenders€18M
- MittelstädtLBVfB Stuttgart · defenders€18M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).