Lucas
Hernández
LBFrance · Paris Saint-Germain
Player dossierLigue 1
LucasHernández
LBLeft-BackDefender
- Club
- Paris Saint-Germain
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- France
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 184 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Hernández at €18M. Model A, which never saw Hernández during training, estimates €8.4M: the market value is 115% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 60
- Minutes
- 3,068
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 32/60
- Min / app
- 51
- Cards
- 6Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hernández…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
15% this player0% defender median77th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €1M
- Aug 2015
- Peak
- €70M
- Feb 2019
- Model target
- €18M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 31
- 2 club changes
Jun 2026: €18M, Paris Saint-Germain. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-08-25 | €1M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2016-02-22 | €2M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2016-04-07 | €5M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2016-07-15 | €10M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2017-01-24 | €10M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2017-06-05 | €15M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2018-01-01 | €20M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2018-03-22 | €30M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2018-05-30 | €35M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2018-07-16 | €40M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2018-10-31 | €50M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2018-12-21 | €60M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2019-02-28 | €70M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2019-06-11 | €70M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2019-12-17 | €70M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-04-08 | €56M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-09-16 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-11-26 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-02-10 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-06-01 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-12-22 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-06-09 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-11-09 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-06-22 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-12-18 | €45M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2024-06-03 | €40M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2024-12-10 | €32M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2025-03-24 | €30M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2025-06-03 | €25M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2025-12-15 | €20M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2026-06-01 | €18M | Paris Saint-Germain |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.764
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 82% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 89% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Hernández appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GolovinAMAS Monaco · Ligue 1€18M
- GbohoLWFC Toulouse · Ligue 1€18M
- MedinaCBOlympique Marseille · Ligue 1€18M
- BalerdiCBOlympique Marseille · Ligue 1€18M
- AntonCBBorussia Dortmund · defenders€18M
- AinaRBNottingham Forest · defenders€18M
- MittelstädtLBVfB Stuttgart · defenders€18M
- RodonCBLeeds United · defenders€18M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).