FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Diego

Coppola

CBItaly · Paris FC

№ 660860Elite €10.5M +0.54

Player dossierLigue 1

DiegoCoppola

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Paris FC
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Italy
Age
22
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Coppola at €18M. Model A, which never saw Coppola during training, estimates €10.5M: the market value is 71% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.71. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.54A €10.5M▲ +0.97B €6.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
4,728
Goals
2
Assists
4
Started
53/57
Min / app
83
Cards
15Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Coppola…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €18MModel A €10.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Diego Coppola's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 55th, Assists per 90 70th, Minutes, two years 79th, Starts 79th, Minutes, last 365 days 51st, European club minutes 30th55thGoals70thAssists79thMinutes79thStarts51stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,728 this player2,860 defender median79th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€800k
Mar 2022
Peak
€18M
Jun 2026
Model target
€18M
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
2 club changes
Jun 2026€18MParis FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €18M, Paris FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-03-15€800kHellas Verona
2022-06-07€1MHellas Verona
2022-09-27€3MHellas Verona
2022-11-11€3MHellas Verona
2023-06-15€4MHellas Verona
2023-12-20€4MHellas Verona
2024-06-05€6MHellas Verona
2024-10-18€7.5MHellas Verona
2024-12-18€7.5MHellas Verona
2025-06-17€10MHellas Verona
2025-12-09€10MBrighton & Hove Albion
2026-06-01€18MParis FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.539

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 82% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 89% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Coppola appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).