FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Nor

Maviram

LBNigeria · CD Tondela

№ 700789Emerging €684k −0.54

Player dossierLiga Portugal

NorMaviram

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
CD Tondela
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Nigeria
Age
25
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Maviram at €400k. Model A, which never saw Maviram during training, estimates €684k: the market value is 42% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.71. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €826k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.54A €684k▼ −0.72B €826k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
1,458
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
17/20
Min / app
73
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Maviram…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €684k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Nor Maviram's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 93rd, Assists per 90 83rd, Minutes, two years 22nd, Starts 56th, Minutes, last 365 days 43rd, European club minutes 30th93rdGoals83rdAssists22ndMinutes56thStarts43rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.12 this player0.03 defender median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2021
Peak
€500k
Dec 2025
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
9
2 club changes
May 2026€400kCD TondelaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, CD Tondela. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-29€50kFC Vizela
2023-09-29€50kLänk FC Vilaverdense
2023-12-14€125kLänk FC Vilaverdense
2024-06-20€225kLänk FC Vilaverdense
2024-10-29€300kCD Tondela
2024-12-16€375kCD Tondela
2025-06-23€375kCD Tondela
2025-12-18€500kCD Tondela
2026-05-28€400kCD Tondela

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.536

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 12% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Maviram appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).