FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Kazımcan

Karataş

LBTürkiye · Basaksehir FK

№ 697149Established €1.5M +0.27

Player dossierSüper Lig

KazımcanKarataş

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Basaksehir FK
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
23
Height
182 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Karataş at €2M. Model A, which never saw Karataş during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 30% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.27A €1.5M▲ +0.18B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
2,726
Goals
1
Assists
5
Started
27/42
Min / app
65
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Karataş…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Kazımcan Karataş's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 51st, Assists per 90 91st, Minutes, two years 47th, Starts 20th, Minutes, last 365 days 33rd, European club minutes 30th51stGoals91stAssists47thMinutes20thStarts33rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.17 this player0.04 defender median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Aug 2020
Peak
€2.5M
Dec 2023
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
21
5 club changes
May 2026€2MBasaksehir FKValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, Basaksehir FK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-08-04€25kAltay SK
2020-12-30€50kAltay SK
2021-06-02€150kAltay SK
2021-10-12€150kAltay SK
2022-01-04€225kAltay SK
2022-03-31€600kAltay SK
2022-06-01€950kAltay SK
2022-09-13€1.2MGalatasaray
2022-10-27€1.2MGalatasaray
2023-03-14€1.7MGalatasaray
2023-06-08€2.3MGalatasaray
2023-09-27€2.4MGalatasaray
2023-12-21€2.5MGalatasaray
2024-03-15€2.2MMKE Ankaragücü
2024-05-31€1.9MMKE Ankaragücü
2024-09-18€1.5MFC Orenburg
2024-12-12€1.5MFC Orenburg
2025-06-04€1.2MFC Orenburg
2025-10-01€1MGalatasaray
2025-12-17€2MGalatasaray
2026-05-21€2MBasaksehir FK

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.265

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 61% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Karataş appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).