MoussaDiarra

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: RSC Anderlecht
League: Pro League
Nationality: Mali
Age: 25
Height: 185 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Diarra at €2M. Model A, which never saw Diarra during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 45% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.45. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 44
Minutes: 3,323
Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Started: 38/44
Min / app: 76
Cards: 11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Diarra…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

86% this player83% defender median59th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €150k; Sept 2019
Peak: €2M; Jun 2024
Model target: €2M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 18; 2 club changes

Jun 2026€2MRSC AnderlechtValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2M, RSC Anderlecht. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2019-09-27	€150k	FC Toulouse
2019-12-19	€400k	FC Toulouse
2020-04-08	€350k	FC Toulouse
2020-11-11	€350k	FC Toulouse
2021-06-25	€450k	FC Toulouse
2021-12-27	€500k	FC Toulouse
2022-03-24	€600k	FC Toulouse
2022-06-02	€600k	FC Toulouse
2022-09-19	€800k	FC Toulouse
2022-11-02	€800k	FC Toulouse
2023-06-27	€800k	FC Toulouse
2023-10-16	€1.5M	FC Toulouse
2023-12-18	€1.5M	FC Toulouse
2024-06-03	€2M	FC Toulouse
2024-12-27	€2M	Deportivo Alavés
2025-06-09	€1.8M	Deportivo Alavés
2025-12-12	€1.5M	Deportivo Alavés
2026-06-04	€2M	RSC Anderlecht

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.374

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 50% of the 350 Pro League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Diarra appears

TerminalPro League in the Player Explorer
TerminalPro League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).