FairValue

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Thorgan

Hazard

AMBelgium · RSC Anderlecht

№ 102226Established €2M +0.01

Player dossierPro League

ThorganHazard

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
RSC Anderlecht
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
33
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hazard at €2M. Model A, which never saw Hazard during training, estimates €2M: the market value is 1% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.01A €2M▼ −0.09B €2.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
3,858
Goals
15
Assists
11
Started
43/56
Min / app
69
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hazard…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Thorgan Hazard's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 96th, Assists per 90 92nd, Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 64th, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 75th96thGoals92ndAssists72ndMinutes64thStarts91stRecent75thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.35 this player0.08 midfielder median96th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jul 2011
Peak
€45M
Mar 2019
Model target
€2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
40
5 club changes
Jun 2026€2MRSC AnderlechtValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2M, RSC Anderlecht. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-07-22€150kRC Lens
2011-09-03€250kRC Lens
2011-12-24€400kRC Lens
2012-06-01€500kRC Lens
2012-09-18€1MZulte Waregem
2013-01-09€1.5MZulte Waregem
2013-06-25€4MZulte Waregem
2013-10-08€6MZulte Waregem
2014-02-10€10MZulte Waregem
2014-06-28€10MZulte Waregem
2015-02-04€10MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2015-07-01€10MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2016-02-15€7.5MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2016-07-22€8.5MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2016-10-13€12MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2017-02-07€12MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2017-06-19€12MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2017-12-28€20MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2018-06-05€22MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2018-10-22€25MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2018-12-18€38MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2019-03-06€45MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2019-06-05€38MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2019-12-17€40MBorussia Dortmund
2020-04-08€32MBorussia Dortmund
2021-02-10€32MBorussia Dortmund
2021-05-26€27MBorussia Dortmund
2021-12-22€20MBorussia Dortmund
2022-06-09€15MBorussia Dortmund
2022-09-21€12MBorussia Dortmund
2022-11-09€9MBorussia Dortmund
2023-06-23€7MPSV Eindhoven
2023-10-23€6MRSC Anderlecht
2023-12-19€6MRSC Anderlecht
2024-06-04€5MRSC Anderlecht
2024-12-11€4MRSC Anderlecht
2025-03-26€3MRSC Anderlecht
2025-06-12€2.5MRSC Anderlecht
2025-12-10€2.5MRSC Anderlecht
2026-06-04€2MRSC Anderlecht

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.005

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 50% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hazard appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).