FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Facundo

Pellistri

RWUruguay · Panathinaikos

№ 676318Established €2.5M +0.70

Player dossierSuper League

FacundoPellistri

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Panathinaikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Uruguay
Age
24
Height
174 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pellistri at €5M. Model A, which never saw Pellistri during training, estimates €2.5M: the market value is 102% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.70A €2.5M▲ +0.38B €3.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
2,269
Goals
3
Assists
6
Started
23/42
Min / app
54
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pellistri…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €2.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Facundo Pellistri's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 17th, Assists per 90 80th, Minutes, two years 51st, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 35th, European club minutes 98th17thGoals80thAssists51stMinutes43rdStarts35thRecent98thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

38% this player0% attacker median98th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2M
Jan 2020
Peak
€10M
Dec 2023
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
6 club changes
Jun 2026€5MPanathinaikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Panathinaikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-01-06€2MCA Peñarol
2020-04-08€1.8MCA Peñarol
2020-10-13€7MManchester United
2021-06-10€6MDeportivo Alavés
2021-12-30€4MDeportivo Alavés
2022-03-21€2.5MDeportivo Alavés
2022-06-03€2.5MDeportivo Alavés
2022-11-03€3MManchester United
2023-06-20€6MManchester United
2023-10-09€8MManchester United
2023-12-19€10MManchester United
2024-06-07€8MGranada CF
2024-07-19€10MManchester United
2024-12-18€10MPanathinaikos
2025-05-23€8MPanathinaikos
2025-12-12€7MPanathinaikos
2026-03-06€6MPanathinaikos
2026-06-04€5MPanathinaikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.704

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 93% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pellistri appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).