FairValue

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Portrait of Chris Wood

Chris

Wood

CFNew Zealand · Nottingham Forest

№ 108725Established €3.3M +0.42

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

ChrisWood

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Nottingham Forest
League
Premier League
Nationality
New Zealand
Age
34
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Wood at €5M. Model A, which never saw Wood during training, estimates €3.3M: the market value is 53% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.42A €3.3M▲ +0.95B €1.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
4,278
Goals
25
Assists
3
Started
51/60
Min / app
71
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Wood…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €3.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Chris Wood's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 91st, Assists per 90 19th, Minutes, two years 84th, Starts 89th, Minutes, last 365 days 44th, European club minutes 65th91stGoals19thAssists84thMinutes89thStarts44thRecent65thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.53 this player0.26 attacker median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Sept 2009
Peak
€18M
May 2018
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
37
7 club changes
Jun 2026€5MNottingham ForestValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-09-06€150kWest Bromwich Albion
2009-11-29€600kWest Bromwich Albion
2010-07-19€750kWest Bromwich Albion
2011-08-08€750kBirmingham City
2012-06-24€1MWest Bromwich Albion
2013-03-02€1.5MLeicester City
2013-07-11€2MLeicester City
2014-01-08€1.3MLeicester City
2014-08-12€1.3MLeicester City
2015-02-12€1MLeicester City
2015-09-24€2.5MLeeds United
2016-04-20€2.5MLeeds United
2016-09-01€3MLeeds United
2017-02-27€6MLeeds United
2017-10-23€12MBurnley FC
2018-01-02€12MBurnley FC
2018-05-28€18MBurnley FC
2018-12-19€18MBurnley FC
2019-06-13€18MBurnley FC
2019-12-10€18MBurnley FC
2020-04-08€14.5MBurnley FC
2020-10-13€12MBurnley FC
2021-03-18€8MBurnley FC
2021-06-08€8MBurnley FC
2021-12-23€6MBurnley FC
2022-03-29€10MNewcastle United
2022-06-15€10MNewcastle United
2022-11-03€10MNewcastle United
2023-06-20€8MNottingham Forest
2023-12-19€7MNottingham Forest
2024-05-27€7MNottingham Forest
2024-12-16€7MNottingham Forest
2025-03-18€10MNottingham Forest
2025-05-30€10MNottingham Forest
2025-12-09€8MNottingham Forest
2026-03-09€6MNottingham Forest
2026-06-03€5MNottingham Forest

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.422

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 21% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Wood appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).