Dário
Essugo
DMPortugal · Chelsea FC
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
DárioEssugo
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Chelsea FC
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 21
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Essugo at €15M. Model A, which never saw Essugo during training, estimates €6.6M: the market value is 126% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 37
- Minutes
- 2,115
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 25/37
- Min / app
- 57
- Cards
- 13Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Essugo…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
2% this player0% midfielder median61st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €1M
- Dec 2021
- Peak
- €20M
- Jun 2025
- Model target
- €15M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 5 club changes
Jun 2026: €15M, Chelsea FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-27 | €1M | Sporting CP B |
| 2023-03-02 | €2M | Sporting CP B |
| 2023-06-16 | €2M | Sporting CP B |
| 2023-12-27 | €2M | Sporting CP |
| 2024-03-08 | €3M | GD Chaves |
| 2024-06-06 | €3.5M | GD Chaves |
| 2024-12-27 | €8M | UD Las Palmas |
| 2025-03-21 | €15M | UD Las Palmas |
| 2025-06-09 | €20M | Sporting CP |
| 2025-12-09 | €20M | Chelsea FC |
| 2026-03-09 | €17M | Chelsea FC |
| 2026-06-03 | €15M | Chelsea FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.816
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 43% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Essugo appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- AlissonGKLiverpool FC · Premier League€15M
- DijkCBLiverpool FC · Premier League€15M
- PalhinhaDMTottenham Hotspur · Premier League€15M
- BoscagliCBBrighton & Hove Albion · Premier League€15M
- HøjbjergDMOlympique Marseille · midfielders€15M
- BrandtAMBorussia Dortmund · midfielders€15M
- AursnesCMSL Benfica · midfielders€15M
- AsensioAMFenerbahce · midfielders€15M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).