FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Rodrigo

Huescas

RBMexico · FC Copenhagen

№ 668529Established €3.8M +0.47

Player dossierSuperliga

RodrigoHuescas

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
FC Copenhagen
League
Superliga
Nationality
Mexico
Age
22
Height
172 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Huescas at €6M. Model A, which never saw Huescas during training, estimates €3.8M: the market value is 60% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.60. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.47A €3.8M▲ +0.18B €5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
38
Minutes
2,818
Goals
1
Assists
6
Started
34/38
Min / app
74
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Huescas…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €3.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Rodrigo Huescas's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 50th, Assists per 90 94th, Minutes, two years 49th, Starts 68th, Minutes, last 365 days 46th, European club minutes 94th50thGoals94thAssists49thMinutes68thStarts46thRecent94thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.19 this player0.04 defender median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Sept 2022
Peak
€6M
Jun 2024
Model target
€6M
May 2026
Valuations
11
1 club change
May 2026€6MFC CopenhagenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €6M, FC Copenhagen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-09-08€300kCD Cruz Azul
2022-10-31€600kCD Cruz Azul
2023-03-30€800kCD Cruz Azul
2023-06-29€2.5MCD Cruz Azul
2023-12-29€3.5MCD Cruz Azul
2024-03-04€5MCD Cruz Azul
2024-06-14€6MCD Cruz Azul
2024-12-09€5MFC Copenhagen
2025-06-16€6MFC Copenhagen
2025-12-15€6MFC Copenhagen
2026-05-25€6MFC Copenhagen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.469

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Joint 8th highest observed value among 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 73% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Huescas appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).