FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Zito

Luvumbo

RWAngola · RCD Mallorca

№ 666547Established €3M −0.02

Player dossierLaLiga

ZitoLuvumbo

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
RCD Mallorca
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Angola
Age
24
Height
171 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Luvumbo at €3M. Model A, which never saw Luvumbo during training, estimates €3M: the market value is 2% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.02A €3M▲ +0.55B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
2,694
Goals
2
Assists
4
Started
30/52
Min / app
52
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Luvumbo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Zito Luvumbo's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 9th, Assists per 90 45th, Minutes, two years 61st, Starts 48th, Minutes, last 365 days 37th, European club minutes 28th9thGoals45thAssists61stMinutes48thStarts37thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

2,694 this player2,242 attacker median61st percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Oct 2020
Peak
€7.5M
Jun 2024
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
4 club changes
Jun 2026€3MRCD MallorcaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, RCD Mallorca. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-10-29€1MCagliari Primavera
2020-12-29€1MCagliari Primavera
2021-06-03€1MCagliari Primavera
2021-12-29€800kComo 1907
2022-06-23€800kCagliari Primavera
2022-12-22€1.2MCagliari Calcio
2023-06-12€2MCagliari Calcio
2023-10-11€5MCagliari Calcio
2023-12-20€6MCagliari Calcio
2024-06-05€7.5MCagliari Calcio
2024-12-18€7MCagliari Calcio
2025-03-25€5.5MCagliari Calcio
2025-06-17€5MCagliari Calcio
2025-12-23€3.5MCagliari Calcio
2026-06-05€3MRCD Mallorca

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.016

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 40% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Luvumbo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).