FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Peque

Fernández

SSSpain · Sevilla FC

№ 639733Established €3M −0.01

Player dossierLaLiga

PequeFernández

SSSecond StrikerAttack

Club
Sevilla FC
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
23
Height
172 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fernández at €3M. Model A, which never saw Fernández during training, estimates €3M: the market value is 1% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.01A €3M▲ +0.14B €2.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
2,412
Goals
4
Assists
3
Started
29/57
Min / app
42
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fernández…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Peque Fernández's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 23rd, Assists per 90 36th, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 36th, Minutes, last 365 days 44th, European club minutes 28th23rdGoals36thAssists54thMinutes36thStarts44thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

2,412 this player2,242 attacker median54th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2020
Peak
€5M
Oct 2024
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
2 club changes
Jun 2026€3MSevilla FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Sevilla FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-07-23€100kFC Barcelona B
2020-10-08€100kFC Barcelona B
2021-01-08€200kFC Barcelona B
2021-06-30€200kFC Barcelona B
2021-12-30€200kFC Barcelona B
2022-06-29€200kFC Barcelona B
2022-12-29€200kRacing Santander
2023-06-14€300kRacing Santander
2023-10-13€500kRacing Santander
2023-12-20€2MRacing Santander
2024-03-26€2.5MRacing Santander
2024-06-24€3MRacing Santander
2024-10-11€5MSevilla FC
2024-12-27€5MSevilla FC
2025-03-21€3.5MSevilla FC
2025-06-09€3.5MSevilla FC
2025-12-12€3.5MSevilla FC
2026-06-05€3MSevilla FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.013

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 40% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fernández appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).