Juan
Castillo
GKColombia · Vitória Guimarães SC
Player dossierLiga Portugal
JuanCastillo
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Vitória Guimarães SC
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Colombia
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Castillo at €500k. Model A, which never saw Castillo during training, estimates €855k: the market value is 42% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.71. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 16
- Minutes
- 1,440
- Started
- 16/16
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Castillo…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €150k
- Sept 2022
- Peak
- €1M
- Sept 2024
- Model target
- €500k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 14
- 1 club change
May 2026: €500k, Vitória Guimarães SC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-05 | €150k | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 2022-12-30 | €150k | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 2023-07-12 | €250k | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 2024-01-04 | €300k | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 2024-03-05 | €600k | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 2024-06-11 | €800k | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 2024-09-23 | €1M | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 2024-12-10 | €1M | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 2025-04-07 | €800k | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 2025-06-20 | €600k | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 2025-09-30 | €800k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2025-12-18 | €1M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2026-03-19 | €700k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2026-05-28 | €500k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.536
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 20% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 27% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Castillo appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SilvaCBFC Porto · Liga Portugal€500k
- MoutinhoCMSC Braga · Liga Portugal€500k
- JongCFFC Porto · Liga Portugal€500k
- PérezDMCasa Pia AC · Liga Portugal€500k
- GünokGKFenerbahce · goalkeepers€500k
- SteeleGKBrighton & Hove Albion · goalkeepers€500k
- DúbravkaGKBurnley FC · goalkeepers€500k
- SilvestriGKUS Cremonese · goalkeepers€500k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).