FairValue

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Portrait of Joe Rodon

Joe

Rodon

CBWales · Leeds United

№ 297212Elite €13.3M +0.30

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JoeRodon

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Leeds United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Wales
Age
28
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rodon at €18M. Model A, which never saw Rodon during training, estimates €13.3M: the market value is 35% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.30A €13.3M▲ +1.25B €5.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
38
Minutes
3,081
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
34/38
Min / app
81
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rodon…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €18MModel A €13.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Joe Rodon's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 69th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 68th, Minutes, last 365 days 90th, European club minutes 30th69thGoals17thAssists54thMinutes68thStarts90thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,081 this player1,687 defender median90th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Sept 2018
Peak
€18M
Jun 2026
Model target
€18M
Jun 2026
Valuations
24
3 club changes
Jun 2026€18MLeeds UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €18M, Leeds United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-09-24€250kSwansea City
2019-02-27€1.5MSwansea City
2019-06-28€1.5MSwansea City
2019-10-17€2.5MSwansea City
2020-02-27€2.5MSwansea City
2020-04-08€2MSwansea City
2020-10-15€7MSwansea City
2020-12-17€10MTottenham Hotspur
2021-03-18€10MTottenham Hotspur
2021-05-25€10MTottenham Hotspur
2021-12-23€8MTottenham Hotspur
2022-06-15€8MTottenham Hotspur
2022-11-02€9MStade Rennais FC
2023-03-27€8MStade Rennais FC
2023-06-27€7MStade Rennais FC
2023-10-27€5MLeeds United
2023-12-21€6MLeeds United
2024-05-24€8MLeeds United
2024-12-30€8MLeeds United
2025-03-28€10MLeeds United
2025-05-27€10MLeeds United
2025-12-09€12MLeeds United
2026-03-09€15MLeeds United
2026-06-03€18MLeeds United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.303

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 50% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 89% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rodon appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).