Bartuğ
Elmaz
DMTürkiye · Fatih Karagümrük
Player dossierSüper Lig
BartuğElmaz
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Fatih Karagümrük
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Türkiye
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 179 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Elmaz at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Elmaz during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 33% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.33. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 26
- Minutes
- 1,241
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 11/26
- Min / app
- 48
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Elmaz…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
3% this player0% midfielder median63rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Dec 2020
- Peak
- €1.8M
- Oct 2025
- Model target
- €1.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 16
- 8 club changes
May 2026: €1.5M, Fatih Karagümrük. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-15 | €50k | Galatasaray U19 |
| 2021-07-14 | €100k | Galatasaray U19 |
| 2022-03-31 | €200k | Galatasaray |
| 2022-06-01 | €300k | Galatasaray |
| 2022-11-02 | €300k | Olympique Marseille |
| 2023-06-27 | €300k | Olympique Marseille |
| 2023-09-27 | €800k | Fenerbahce |
| 2023-12-21 | €800k | Fenerbahce |
| 2024-03-15 | €1M | Sivasspor |
| 2024-05-31 | €1.5M | Sivasspor |
| 2024-10-04 | €1.5M | Fenerbahce |
| 2024-12-23 | €1.5M | Fenerbahce |
| 2025-05-27 | €1.5M | NK Maribor |
| 2025-10-01 | €1.8M | Fenerbahce |
| 2025-12-17 | €1.5M | Fenerbahce |
| 2026-05-21 | €1.5M | Fatih Karagümrük |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.288
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
Valued above 52% of the 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Elmaz appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- AyhanDMGalatasaray · Süper Lig€1.5M
- SatkaCBSamsunspor · Süper Lig€1.5M
- BazoerCBKonyaspor · Süper Lig€1.5M
- SoweCFCaykur Rizespor · Süper Lig€1.5M
- HofmannAMBayer 04 Leverkusen · midfielders€1.5M
- PraetCMRoyal Antwerp FC · midfielders€1.5M
- NielsenCMStandard Liège · midfielders€1.5M
- MárioAMAEK Athens · midfielders€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).