FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Josué

Homawoo

CBTogo · Standard Liège

№ 655143Established €1.6M +0.24

Player dossierPro League

JosuéHomawoo

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Standard Liège
League
Pro League
Nationality
Togo
Age
28
Height
191 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Homawoo at €2M. Model A, which never saw Homawoo during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 27% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.24A €1.6M▲ +0.40B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
2,183
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
26/30
Min / app
73
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Homawoo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Josué Homawoo's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 51st, Minutes, two years 37th, Starts 60th, Minutes, last 365 days 67th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals51stAssists37thMinutes60thStarts67thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,183 this player1,687 defender median67th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jul 2019
Peak
€2M
Jun 2026
Model target
€2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
13
3 club changes
Jun 2026€2MStandard LiègeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2M, Standard Liège. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-07-25€150kFC Nantes
2019-12-19€150kFC Nantes
2021-12-27€300kRed Star FC
2022-06-21€200kRed Star FC
2022-12-20€200kRed Star FC
2023-06-14€200kRed Star FC
2023-12-22€200kFC Dinamo 1948
2024-06-05€350kFC Dinamo 1948
2024-09-13€500kFC Dinamo 1948
2024-12-19€800kFC Dinamo 1948
2025-06-10€900kFC Dinamo 1948
2025-12-10€1.2MStandard Liège
2026-06-04€2MStandard Liège

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.241

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 50% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Homawoo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).