FairValue

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Portrait of Adrien Truffert

Adrien

Truffert

LBFrance · AFC Bournemouth

№ 654539World Class €40M −0.29

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AdrienTruffert

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
AFC Bournemouth
League
Premier League
Nationality
France
Age
24
Height
176 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Truffert at €30M. Model A, which never saw Truffert during training, estimates €40M: the market value is 25% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.33. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €24.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.29A €40M▲ +0.21B €24.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
72
Minutes
6,173
Goals
3
Assists
7
Started
69/72
Min / app
86
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Truffert…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €40M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Adrien Truffert's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 59th, Assists per 90 78th, Minutes, two years 94th, Starts 86th, Minutes, last 365 days 95th, European club minutes 30th59thGoals78thAssists94thMinutes86thStarts95thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,417 this player1,687 defender median95th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2020
Peak
€30M
Jun 2026
Model target
€30M
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
1 club change
Jun 2026€30MAFC BournemouthValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €30M, AFC Bournemouth. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-08-04€200kStade Rennais FC
2020-10-15€1MStade Rennais FC
2021-01-07€8MStade Rennais FC
2021-04-09€12MStade Rennais FC
2021-06-04€12MStade Rennais FC
2021-12-16€11MStade Rennais FC
2022-05-30€12MStade Rennais FC
2022-11-02€15MStade Rennais FC
2023-03-27€18MStade Rennais FC
2023-06-27€18MStade Rennais FC
2023-12-18€18MStade Rennais FC
2024-06-03€18MStade Rennais FC
2024-12-10€15MStade Rennais FC
2025-06-03€15MStade Rennais FC
2025-12-09€20MAFC Bournemouth
2026-03-09€25MAFC Bournemouth
2026-06-03€30MAFC Bournemouth

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.288

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 73% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 95% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Truffert appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).