FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Alessandro Buongiorno

Alessandro

Buongiorno

CBItaly · SSC Napoli

№ 386446World Class €17.4M +0.55

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

AlessandroBuongiorno

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
SSC Napoli
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
26
Height
190 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Buongiorno at €30M. Model A, which never saw Buongiorno during training, estimates €17.4M: the market value is 73% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.73. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.55A €17.4M▲ +1.60B €6.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
65
Minutes
5,165
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
58/65
Min / app
79
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Buongiorno…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €17.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Alessandro Buongiorno's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 38th, Assists per 90 36th, Minutes, two years 86th, Starts 67th, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 74th38thGoals36thAssists86thMinutes67thStarts91stRecent74thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,149 this player1,687 defender median91st percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Nov 2016
Peak
€50M
Jun 2025
Model target
€30M
May 2026
Valuations
25
4 club changes
May 2026€30MSSC NapoliValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €30M, SSC Napoli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-11-14€50kTorino Primavera
2017-06-26€75kTorino Primavera
2018-06-30€125kTorino Primavera
2019-01-17€500kCarpi FC 1909
2019-06-05€500kCarpi FC 1909
2020-02-11€500kTrapani Calcio
2020-04-08€450kTrapani Calcio
2020-08-21€600kTrapani Calcio
2020-12-29€800kTorino FC
2021-03-23€1.3MTorino FC
2021-06-03€2.5MTorino FC
2021-12-28€4MTorino FC
2022-06-07€4MTorino FC
2022-11-11€5MTorino FC
2023-03-21€8MTorino FC
2023-06-15€10MTorino FC
2023-10-11€20MTorino FC
2023-12-20€22MTorino FC
2024-03-12€30MTorino FC
2024-06-05€35MTorino FC
2024-12-18€45MSSC Napoli
2025-06-17€50MSSC Napoli
2025-12-23€45MSSC Napoli
2026-03-24€35MSSC Napoli
2026-05-29€30MSSC Napoli

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.547

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 91% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 95% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Buongiorno appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).