FairValue

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Portrait of Nathan Collins

Nathan

Collins

CBIreland · Brentford FC

№ 469050World Class €35.8M −0.18

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

NathanCollins

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Brentford FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Ireland
Age
25
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Collins at €30M. Model A, which never saw Collins during training, estimates €35.8M: the market value is 16% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.19. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €34.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.18A €35.8M▼ −0.13B €34.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
81
Minutes
6,826
Goals
4
Assists
8
Started
73/81
Min / app
84
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Collins…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €35.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Nathan Collins's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 65th, Assists per 90 79th, Minutes, two years 97th, Starts 69th, Minutes, last 365 days 95th, European club minutes 30th65thGoals79thAssists97thMinutes69thStarts95thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,826 this player2,860 defender median97th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Oct 2019
Peak
€35M
Oct 2025
Model target
€30M
Jun 2026
Valuations
20
3 club changes
Jun 2026€30MBrentford FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €30M, Brentford FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-10-16€500kStoke City
2020-02-27€900kStoke City
2020-04-08€800kStoke City
2020-10-15€800kStoke City
2020-12-22€2MStoke City
2021-03-10€2MStoke City
2021-06-30€8MStoke City
2021-12-23€8MBurnley FC
2022-06-15€10MBurnley FC
2022-09-15€22MWolverhampton Wanderers
2022-11-03€22MWolverhampton Wanderers
2023-06-20€22MWolverhampton Wanderers
2023-12-19€25MBrentford FC
2024-05-27€25MBrentford FC
2024-12-16€28MBrentford FC
2025-05-30€28MBrentford FC
2025-10-17€35MBrentford FC
2025-12-09€35MBrentford FC
2026-03-09€30MBrentford FC
2026-06-03€30MBrentford FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.177

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 73% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 95% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Collins appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).