FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Alexsandro

CBBrazil · LOSC Lille

№ 648020Elite €15M 0.00

Player dossierLigue 1

Alexsandro

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
LOSC Lille
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Brazil
Age
26
Height
191 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Alexsandro at €15M. Model A, which never saw Alexsandro during training, estimates €15M: the market value is level with that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.00. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ 0.00A €15M▲ +0.35B €10.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
55
Minutes
4,618
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
53/55
Min / app
84
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Alexsandro…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €15M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Alexsandro's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 40th, Assists per 90 50th, Minutes, two years 78th, Starts 88th, Minutes, last 365 days 16th, European club minutes 96th40thGoals50thAssists78thMinutes88thStarts16thRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

30% this player0% defender median96th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Nov 2021
Peak
€20M
Jun 2025
Model target
€15M
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
1 club change
Jun 2026€15MLOSC LilleValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €15M, LOSC Lille. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-11-05€250kGD Chaves
2022-04-01€500kGD Chaves
2022-06-27€800kGD Chaves
2022-09-19€2MLOSC Lille
2022-11-02€2.5MLOSC Lille
2023-06-27€5MLOSC Lille
2023-12-18€7MLOSC Lille
2024-06-03€8MLOSC Lille
2024-12-10€12MLOSC Lille
2025-03-24€15MLOSC Lille
2025-06-03€20MLOSC Lille
2025-12-15€20MLOSC Lille
2026-03-27€18MLOSC Lille
2026-06-01€15MLOSC Lille

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.002

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 76% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 87% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Alexsandro appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).