FairValue

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Nayef

Aguerd

CBMorocco · Olympique Marseille

№ 361914Elite €6.9M +0.78

Player dossierLigue 1

NayefAguerd

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Olympique Marseille
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Morocco
Age
30
Height
190 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Aguerd at €15M. Model A, which never saw Aguerd during training, estimates €6.9M: the market value is 118% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.78A €6.9M▲ +1.22B €4.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
5,027
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
58/60
Min / app
84
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Aguerd…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €6.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Nayef Aguerd's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 39th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 89th, Minutes, last 365 days 65th, European club minutes 92nd39thGoals17thAssists83rdMinutes89thStarts65thRecent92ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

26% this player0% defender median92nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Oct 2017
Peak
€38M
Dec 2023
Model target
€15M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
5 club changes
Jun 2026€15MOlympique MarseilleValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €15M, Olympique Marseille. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-10-17€300kFUS Rabat
2018-01-10€550kFUS Rabat
2018-06-10€900kFUS Rabat
2018-09-06€1.3MDijon FCO
2018-12-17€1.3MDijon FCO
2019-06-03€1.5MDijon FCO
2019-09-27€3MDijon FCO
2019-12-19€3MDijon FCO
2020-04-08€2.4MDijon FCO
2020-08-03€4MDijon FCO
2020-10-15€8MStade Rennais FC
2021-06-04€8MStade Rennais FC
2021-12-16€9MStade Rennais FC
2022-05-30€12MStade Rennais FC
2022-09-15€25MWest Ham United
2022-11-03€25MWest Ham United
2023-03-16€32MWest Ham United
2023-06-20€35MWest Ham United
2023-12-19€38MWest Ham United
2024-05-27€35MWest Ham United
2024-12-27€35MReal Sociedad
2025-03-21€25MReal Sociedad
2025-06-09€18MReal Sociedad
2025-10-10€20MOlympique Marseille
2025-12-15€22MOlympique Marseille
2026-03-27€20MOlympique Marseille
2026-06-01€15MOlympique Marseille

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.779

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 76% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 87% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Aguerd appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).