FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Sergey

Pryakhin

AMRussia · Akhmat Grozny

№ 646894Emerging €1.5M −0.22

Player dossierPremier Liga

SergeyPryakhin

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Akhmat Grozny
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
23
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pryakhin at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Pryakhin during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 19% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.24. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.22A €1.5M▼ −0.46B €1.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
27
Minutes
1,528
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
20/27
Min / app
57
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pryakhin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Sergey Pryakhin's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 38th, Assists per 90 59th, Minutes, two years 25th, Starts 59th, Minutes, last 365 days 50th, European club minutes 30th38thGoals59thAssists25thMinutes59thStarts50thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.12 this player0.09 midfielder median59th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2019
Peak
€1.2M
May 2026
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
16
3 club changes
May 2026€1.2MAkhmat GroznyValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Akhmat Grozny. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-12-23€50kCSKA Moscow II
2020-06-29€100kCSKA Moscow II
2020-12-29€150kCSKA Moscow II
2021-06-02€250kCSKA Moscow II
2021-12-03€250kKairat Moscow ( -2022)
2022-06-13€250kKairat Moscow ( -2022)
2022-12-08€300kBaltika Kaliningrad
2023-04-13€350kBaltika Kaliningrad
2023-06-19€350kBaltika Kaliningrad
2023-12-13€350kBaltika Kaliningrad
2024-06-04€300kBaltika Kaliningrad
2024-12-04€450kBaltika Kaliningrad
2025-06-02€700kBaltika Kaliningrad
2025-12-16€800kBaltika Kaliningrad
2026-03-25€1MAkhmat Grozny
2026-05-26€1.2MAkhmat Grozny

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.215

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 51% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pryakhin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).