FairValue

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Ilya

Petrov

CMRussia · Baltika Kaliningrad

№ 297034Emerging €1.4M −0.17

Player dossierPremier Liga

IlyaPetrov

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Baltika Kaliningrad
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
30
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Petrov at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Petrov during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 15% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €904k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.17A €1.4M▲ +0.28B €904k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
28
Minutes
1,978
Goals
1
Assists
4
Started
26/28
Min / app
71
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Petrov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ilya Petrov's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 32nd, Assists per 90 79th, Minutes, two years 36th, Starts 90th, Minutes, last 365 days 64th, European club minutes 30th32ndGoals79thAssists36thMinutes90thStarts64thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

93% this player69% midfielder median90th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jun 2015
Peak
€1.2M
Dec 2025
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
25
8 club changes
May 2026€1.2MBaltika KaliningradValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Baltika Kaliningrad. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-06-11€150kVolga Nizhniy Novgorod
2016-01-10€150kVolga Nizhniy Novgorod
2016-07-01€250kDinamo Moscow
2016-12-27€250kMordovia Saransk (-2020)
2017-06-01€350kMordovia Saransk (-2020)
2018-06-06€300kUD Leiria
2018-10-15€350kMordovia Saransk (-2020)
2018-12-20€500kMordovia Saransk (-2020)
2019-06-14€500kMordovia Saransk (-2020)
2019-12-23€600kNeftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
2020-04-08€475kNeftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
2020-06-29€500kNeftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
2020-12-29€600kNeftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
2021-05-24€600kNeftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
2021-12-07€500kKuban Krasnodar
2022-05-30€500kKuban Krasnodar
2022-12-08€600kSKA Khabarovsk
2023-06-19€500kSKA Khabarovsk
2023-11-30€500kSKA Khabarovsk
2024-06-14€600kSKA Khabarovsk
2024-12-04€700kBaltika Kaliningrad
2025-06-02€800kBaltika Kaliningrad
2025-09-18€1MBaltika Kaliningrad
2025-12-16€1.2MBaltika Kaliningrad
2026-05-26€1.2MBaltika Kaliningrad

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.167

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 51% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Petrov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).