FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Tommaso

Baldanzi

AMItaly · Genoa CFC

№ 641537Established €6.2M +0.31

Player dossierSerie A

TommasoBaldanzi

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Genoa CFC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
23
Height
170 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Baldanzi at €8.5M. Model A, which never saw Baldanzi during training, estimates €6.2M: the market value is 36% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.31A €6.2M▲ +0.22B €6.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
59
Minutes
2,150
Goals
3
Assists
4
Started
20/59
Min / app
36
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Baldanzi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8.5MModel A €6.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Tommaso Baldanzi's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 65th, Assists per 90 76th, Minutes, two years 40th, Starts 7th, Minutes, last 365 days 23rd, European club minutes 86th65thGoals76thAssists40thMinutes7thStarts23rdRecent86thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

21% this player0% midfielder median86th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Jun 2021
Peak
€15M
Jun 2023
Model target
€8.5M
May 2026
Valuations
15
3 club changes
May 2026€8.5MGenoa CFCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €8.5M, Genoa CFC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-30€600kEmpoli Primavera
2021-12-28€800kFC Empoli
2022-06-07€800kFC Empoli
2022-09-27€1.5MFC Empoli
2022-11-11€3MFC Empoli
2023-03-21€10MFC Empoli
2023-06-15€15MFC Empoli
2023-12-20€15MFC Empoli
2024-06-05€15MAS Roma
2024-12-18€14MAS Roma
2025-06-17€12MAS Roma
2025-10-07€10MAS Roma
2025-12-23€10MAS Roma
2026-03-24€9MGenoa CFC
2026-05-29€8.5MGenoa CFC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.309

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 63% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€8.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 77% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Baldanzi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).