FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Ruben Loftus-Cheek

Ruben

Loftus-Cheek

CMEngland · AC Milan

№ 202886Established €8.2M +0.04

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

RubenLoftus-Cheek

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
AC Milan
League
Serie A
Nationality
England
Age
30
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Loftus-Cheek at €8.5M. Model A, which never saw Loftus-Cheek during training, estimates €8.2M: the market value is 4% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.04A €8.2M▲ +1.11B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
2,837
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
31/60
Min / app
47
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Loftus-Cheek…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8.5MModel A €8.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ruben Loftus-Cheek's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 55th, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 55th, Starts 24th, Minutes, last 365 days 47th, European club minutes 71st55thGoals35thAssists55thMinutes24thStarts47thRecent71stEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

10% this player0% midfielder median71st percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jul 2013
Peak
€30M
Jun 2019
Model target
€8.5M
May 2026
Valuations
30
6 club changes
May 2026€8.5MAC MilanValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €8.5M, AC Milan. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-07-25€150kChelsea FC U18
2015-02-12€500kChelsea FC
2015-07-01€2MChelsea FC
2016-02-09€5MChelsea FC
2016-08-01€5MChelsea FC
2017-02-20€5MChelsea FC
2017-06-28€5MChelsea FC
2018-01-02€8MCrystal Palace
2018-05-28€15MCrystal Palace
2018-07-16€18MChelsea FC
2018-12-19€20MChelsea FC
2019-03-05€25MChelsea FC
2019-06-13€30MChelsea FC
2019-12-10€30MChelsea FC
2020-04-08€24MChelsea FC
2020-10-13€24MFulham FC
2021-03-18€20MFulham FC
2021-06-08€18MChelsea FC
2021-12-23€20MChelsea FC
2022-06-15€20MChelsea FC
2022-09-15€22MChelsea FC
2022-11-03€25MChelsea FC
2023-06-20€25MChelsea FC
2023-12-20€25MAC Milan
2024-06-05€25MAC Milan
2024-12-18€20MAC Milan
2025-03-25€16MAC Milan
2025-06-17€10MAC Milan
2025-12-23€10MAC Milan
2026-05-29€8.5MAC Milan

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.041

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 63% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€8.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 77% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Loftus-Cheek appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).