FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Sho

Fukuda

RWJapan · Bröndby IF

№ 634859Emerging €757k +0.46

Player dossierSuperliga

ShoFukuda

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Bröndby IF
League
Superliga
Nationality
Japan
Age
25
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fukuda at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Fukuda during training, estimates €757k: the market value is 59% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.59. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €689k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.46A €757k▲ +0.55B €689k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
17
Minutes
697
Goals
4
Assists
1
Started
9/17
Min / app
41
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fukuda…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €757k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Sho Fukuda's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 90th, Assists per 90 43rd, Minutes, two years 9th, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 24th, European club minutes 71st90thGoals43rdAssists9thMinutes40thStarts24thRecent71stEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.52 this player0.26 attacker median90th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jan 2021
Peak
€1.2M
Dec 2025
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
12
3 club changes
May 2026€1.2MBröndby IFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Bröndby IF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-01-25€75kFC Imabari
2021-06-28€75kFC Imabari
2022-01-12€50kFC Imabari
2022-06-28€25kFC Imabari
2023-01-06€25kFC Imabari
2023-06-26€150kYokohama Sports & Culture Club
2024-02-22€250kShonan Bellmare
2024-06-12€500kShonan Bellmare
2024-12-10€700kShonan Bellmare
2025-05-29€750kShonan Bellmare
2025-12-15€1.2MBröndby IF
2026-05-25€1.2MBröndby IF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.461

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 61% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 34% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fukuda appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).