Casper
Winther
CMDenmark · Lyngby Boldklub
Player dossierSuperliga
CasperWinther
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Lyngby Boldklub
- League
- Superliga
- Nationality
- Denmark
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 18 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Winther at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Winther during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 30% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €964k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 27
- Minutes
- 2,058
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 25/27
- Min / app
- 76
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Winther…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
93% this player69% midfielder median90th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Jul 2020
- Peak
- €1.5M
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €1.5M
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 14
- 1 club change
Dec 2025: €1.5M, Lyngby Boldklub. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-07-30 | €25k | Unknown |
| 2020-12-23 | €50k | Lyngby Boldklub |
| 2021-05-24 | €100k | Lyngby Boldklub |
| 2021-06-04 | €50k | Lyngby Boldklub |
| 2021-12-28 | €100k | Lyngby Boldklub |
| 2022-06-20 | €200k | Lyngby Boldklub |
| 2022-09-13 | €350k | Lyngby Boldklub |
| 2022-12-22 | €400k | Lyngby Boldklub |
| 2023-06-26 | €400k | Lyngby Boldklub |
| 2023-12-21 | €650k | Lyngby Boldklub |
| 2024-06-10 | €900k | Lyngby Boldklub |
| 2024-12-09 | €1.3M | Lyngby Boldklub |
| 2025-06-16 | €1.3M | Lyngby Boldklub |
| 2025-12-18 | €1.5M | Lyngby Boldklub |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.261
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Superliga256 players · median €800k
Valued above 64% of the 256 Superliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Winther appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SolbakkenRWFC Nordsjaelland · Superliga€1.5M
- LarsenCMSilkeborg IF · Superliga€1.5M
- GanausCFOdense Boldklub · Superliga€1.5M
- SøndergaardCMViborg FF · Superliga€1.5M
- HofmannAMBayer 04 Leverkusen · midfielders€1.5M
- AyhanDMGalatasaray · midfielders€1.5M
- PraetCMRoyal Antwerp FC · midfielders€1.5M
- NielsenCMStandard Liège · midfielders€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).