AaronDonnelly

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: Dundee FC
League: Premiership
Nationality: Northern Ireland
Age: 22
Height: 185 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Donnelly at €300k. Model A, which never saw Donnelly during training, estimates €188k: the market value is 59% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.59. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €684k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 17
Minutes: 1,367
Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Started: 14/17
Min / app: 80
Cards: 2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Donnelly…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.07 this player0.03 defender median73rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €200k; Nov 2022
Peak: €500k; May 2024
Model target: €300k; May 2026
Valuations: 8; 4 club changes

May 2026€300kDundee FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €300k, Dundee FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2022-11-03	€200k	Nottingham Forest U21
2023-04-05	€400k	Port Vale FC
2023-12-05	€400k	Dundee FC
2024-05-30	€500k	Dundee FC
2024-12-30	€400k	Colchester United
2025-06-17	€400k	Dundee FC
2025-12-10	€400k	Dundee FC
2026-05-20	€300k	Dundee FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.466

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 40% of the 311 Premiership players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 9% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Donnelly appears

TerminalPremiership in the Player Explorer
TerminalPremiership on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).