FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Shamal

George

GKEngland · St. Mirren FC

№ 337290Emerging €465k −0.44

Player dossierPremiership

ShamalGeorge

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
St. Mirren FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
England
Age
28
Height
198 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values George at €300k. Model A, which never saw George during training, estimates €465k: the market value is 35% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.55. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.44A €465k▼ −1.21B €1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
3,218
Started
36/36
Min / app
89
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for George…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €465k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Shamal George's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 59th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 32nd59thMinutes62ndStarts84thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,218 this player1,560 goalkeeper median84th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Sept 2022
Peak
€325k
Mar 2023
Model target
€300k
May 2026
Valuations
10
2 club changes
May 2026€300kSt. Mirren FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €300k, St. Mirren FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-09-06€200kLivingston FC
2022-12-13€300kLivingston FC
2023-03-22€325kLivingston FC
2023-06-26€325kLivingston FC
2023-12-05€300kLivingston FC
2024-05-30€300kLivingston FC
2024-12-27€275kWycombe Wanderers
2025-06-18€250kWycombe Wanderers
2025-12-10€300kSt. Mirren FC
2026-05-20€300kSt. Mirren FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.438

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 40% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where George appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).