FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Cesare Casadei

Cesare

Casadei

CMItaly · Torino FC

№ 622380Elite €12M +0.22

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

CesareCasadei

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Torino FC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
23
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Casadei at €15M. Model A, which never saw Casadei during training, estimates €12M: the market value is 25% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.25. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.22A €12M▲ +0.93B €5.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
3,213
Goals
8
Assists
1
Started
34/51
Min / app
63
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Casadei…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €12M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Cesare Casadei's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 86th, Assists per 90 19th, Minutes, two years 61st, Starts 45th, Minutes, last 365 days 70th, European club minutes 30th86thGoals19thAssists61stMinutes45thStarts70thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.22 this player0.08 midfielder median86th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Jun 2022
Peak
€15M
Mar 2025
Model target
€15M
May 2026
Valuations
10
5 club changes
May 2026€15MTorino FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €15M, Torino FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-06-23€1MInter Milan Primavera
2023-03-24€6MReading FC
2023-06-01€12MChelsea FC
2023-12-21€10MLeicester City
2024-05-27€10MChelsea FC
2024-12-16€10MChelsea FC
2025-03-25€15MTorino FC
2025-06-17€15MTorino FC
2025-12-23€14MTorino FC
2026-05-29€15MTorino FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.221

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 75% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Casadei appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).