FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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Portrait of Merlin Röhl

Merlin

Röhl

AMGermany · Everton FC

№ 608832Elite €8.6M +0.63

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MerlinRöhl

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Everton FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Germany
Age
23
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Röhl at €16M. Model A, which never saw Röhl during training, estimates €8.6M: the market value is 87% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.87. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.63A €8.6M▲ +2.10B €2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
1,808
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
18/40
Min / app
45
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Röhl…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €16M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €16MModel A €8.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Merlin Röhl's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 34th, Assists per 90 29th, Minutes, two years 32nd, Starts 16th, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 30th34thGoals29thAssists32ndMinutes16thStarts26thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.05 this player0.08 midfielder median34th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€225k
Jan 2021
Peak
€18M
Oct 2025
Model target
€16M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
2 club changes
Jun 2026€16MEverton FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €16M, Everton FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-01-20€225kFC Ingolstadt 04
2021-03-26€300kFC Ingolstadt 04
2021-06-14€300kFC Ingolstadt 04
2021-10-13€800kFC Ingolstadt 04
2021-12-15€800kFC Ingolstadt 04
2022-06-16€800kFC Ingolstadt 04
2022-09-21€2MSC Freiburg
2022-11-09€2MSC Freiburg
2023-06-22€2MSC Freiburg
2023-10-18€3MSC Freiburg
2023-12-14€6MSC Freiburg
2024-03-27€10MSC Freiburg
2024-05-29€12MSC Freiburg
2024-12-20€12MSC Freiburg
2025-06-05€12MSC Freiburg
2025-10-17€18MEverton FC
2025-12-09€16MEverton FC
2026-06-03€16MEverton FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.625

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 46% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€16MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 86% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€16MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Röhl appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).