FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Emiliano Buendía

Emiliano

Buendía

LWArgentina · Aston Villa

№ 321247Elite €24.7M −0.43

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

EmilianoBuendía

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Aston Villa
League
Premier League
Nationality
Argentina
Age
29
Height
172 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Buendía at €16M. Model A, which never saw Buendía during training, estimates €24.7M: the market value is 35% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.54. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €21.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.43A €24.7M▼ −0.29B €21.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
84
Minutes
3,345
Goals
12
Assists
8
Started
38/84
Min / app
40
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Buendía…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €16M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €16MModel A €24.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Emiliano Buendía's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 61st, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 27th, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 95th61stGoals74thAssists72ndMinutes27thStarts92ndRecent95thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

31% this player0% attacker median95th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Sept 2015
Peak
€35M
Jun 2021
Model target
€16M
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
5 club changes
Jun 2026€16MAston VillaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €16M, Aston Villa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-09-20€400kGetafe CF
2016-02-22€400kGetafe CF
2016-07-15€500kGetafe CF
2017-01-24€500kGetafe CF
2017-06-29€500kGetafe CF
2018-01-01€2.5MCultural Leonesa
2018-05-30€2.5MCultural Leonesa
2019-06-28€8MNorwich City
2019-09-12€18MNorwich City
2019-12-10€18MNorwich City
2020-04-08€14.5MNorwich City
2020-10-15€13MNorwich City
2020-12-22€16MNorwich City
2021-03-10€22MNorwich City
2021-06-30€35MNorwich City
2021-12-23€35MAston Villa
2022-06-15€32MAston Villa
2022-11-03€28MAston Villa
2023-06-20€28MAston Villa
2023-12-19€22MAston Villa
2024-05-27€22MAston Villa
2024-10-01€20MAston Villa
2024-12-16€18MAston Villa
2025-06-05€15MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2025-12-09€18MAston Villa
2026-06-03€16MAston Villa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.434

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 46% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€16MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 84% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€16MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Buendía appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).