Nicolò
Fagioli
CMItaly · ACF Fiorentina
Close-up
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierSerie A
NicolòFagioli
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- ACF Fiorentina
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Italy
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Fagioli at €16M. Model A, which never saw Fagioli during training, estimates €8.4M: the market value is 90% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.90. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 73
- Minutes
- 4,507
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 6
- Started
- 49/73
- Min / app
- 62
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fagioli…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €16M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Minutes, last 365 days
Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
2,771 this player1,541 midfielder median87th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €900k
- Jun 2020
- Peak
- €35M
- Jun 2023
- Model target
- €16M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 19
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €16M, ACF Fiorentina. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-06-26 | €900k | Juventus U23 |
| 2021-01-11 | €900k | Juventus FC |
| 2021-03-23 | €1.2M | Juventus FC |
| 2021-06-03 | €1.2M | Juventus FC |
| 2021-12-29 | €3.5M | US Cremonese |
| 2022-03-15 | €4M | US Cremonese |
| 2022-06-06 | €6.5M | US Cremonese |
| 2022-11-11 | €8M | Juventus FC |
| 2023-03-21 | €20M | Juventus FC |
| 2023-06-15 | €35M | Juventus FC |
| 2023-12-20 | €15M | Juventus FC |
| 2024-06-05 | €15M | Juventus FC |
| 2024-07-18 | €20M | Juventus FC |
| 2024-12-18 | €20M | Juventus FC |
| 2025-03-25 | €18M | ACF Fiorentina |
| 2025-06-17 | €18M | ACF Fiorentina |
| 2025-12-23 | €14M | ACF Fiorentina |
| 2026-03-24 | €16M | ACF Fiorentina |
| 2026-05-29 | €16M | ACF Fiorentina |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.644
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 79% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 86% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Fagioli appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- ÇalhanoğluDMInter Milan · Serie A€16M
- DodôRBACF Fiorentina · Serie A€16M
- SamardžićAMAtalanta BC · Serie A€16M
- ProvstgaardCBSS Lazio · Serie A€16M
- JaneltDMBrentford FC · midfielders€16M
- FernandesCMSpartak Moscow · midfielders€16M
- FlorentinoDMBurnley FC · midfielders€16M
- BellegardeCMWolverhampton Wanderers · midfielders€16M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).