FairValue

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Portrait of Pep Chavarría

Pep

Chavarría

LBSpain · Rayo Vallecano

№ 596122Elite €4.8M +0.73

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

PepChavarría

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Rayo Vallecano
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
28
Height
174 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Chavarría at €10M. Model A, which never saw Chavarría during training, estimates €4.8M: the market value is 107% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.73A €4.8M▲ +0.48B €6.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
72
Minutes
5,402
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
57/72
Min / app
75
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chavarría…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €4.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Pep Chavarría's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 38th, Assists per 90 57th, Minutes, two years 88th, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 30th38thGoals57thAssists88thMinutes43rdStarts84thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,402 this player2,860 defender median88th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2018
Peak
€10M
Dec 2025
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
2 club changes
Jun 2026€10MRayo VallecanoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, Rayo Vallecano. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-10-31€50kUE Olot
2019-02-19€100kUE Olot
2019-06-29€150kUE Olot
2019-09-10€150kUE Olot
2020-02-11€250kUE Olot
2020-10-08€300kReal Zaragoza
2020-11-23€500kReal Zaragoza
2021-01-08€600kReal Zaragoza
2021-06-24€800kReal Zaragoza
2021-12-27€800kReal Zaragoza
2022-06-29€800kReal Zaragoza
2022-11-07€1MRayo Vallecano
2023-06-13€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2023-10-13€1MRayo Vallecano
2023-12-22€1MRayo Vallecano
2024-06-07€2MRayo Vallecano
2024-12-27€2MRayo Vallecano
2025-03-21€3.5MRayo Vallecano
2025-06-09€5MRayo Vallecano
2025-10-02€7.5MRayo Vallecano
2025-12-12€10MRayo Vallecano
2026-06-05€10MRayo Vallecano

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.727

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 73% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Chavarría appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).