FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Max

Watters

CFEngland · Dundee United FC

№ 586023Emerging €402k −0.01

Player dossierPremiership

MaxWatters

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Dundee United FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
England
Age
27
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Watters at €400k. Model A, which never saw Watters during training, estimates €402k: the market value is 1% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €819k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.01A €402k▼ −0.72B €819k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
27
Minutes
1,496
Goals
5
Assists
2
Started
19/27
Min / app
55
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Watters…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €402k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Max Watters's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 58th, Assists per 90 40th, Minutes, two years 32nd, Starts 69th, Minutes, last 365 days 58th, European club minutes 75th58thGoals40thAssists32ndMinutes69thStarts58thRecent75thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

13% this player0% attacker median75th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Mar 2021
Peak
€400k
Sept 2022
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
14
4 club changes
May 2026€400kDundee United FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, Dundee United FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-03-10€150kCardiff City
2021-06-30€150kCardiff City
2022-05-13€150kCardiff City
2022-09-14€400kCardiff City
2022-10-27€400kCardiff City
2023-04-05€300kBarnsley FC
2023-06-09€300kCardiff City
2023-12-27€400kBarnsley FC
2024-06-28€400kBarnsley FC
2024-12-27€400kBarnsley FC
2025-06-18€400kBarnsley FC
2025-10-08€350kDundee United FC
2025-12-10€400kDundee United FC
2026-05-20€400kDundee United FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.006

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 50% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 11% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Watters appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).