FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Iurie

Iovu

CBMoldova · Dundee United FC

№ 619353Emerging €997k −0.91

Player dossierPremiership

IurieIovu

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Dundee United FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Moldova
Age
23
Height
196 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Iovu at €400k. Model A, which never saw Iovu during training, estimates €997k: the market value is 60% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.49. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.91A €997k▼ −1.79B €2.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
2,444
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
30/30
Min / app
81
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Iovu…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €997k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Iurie Iovu's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 54th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 43rd, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 75th, European club minutes 77th54thGoals17thAssists43rdMinutes97thStarts75thRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2021
Peak
€450k
Dec 2024
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
11
3 club changes
May 2026€400kDundee United FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, Dundee United FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-30€50kCagliari Primavera
2022-06-23€100kCagliari Primavera
2022-11-08€50kNK Istra 1961
2023-06-06€100kNK Istra 1961
2023-12-18€150kNK Istra 1961
2024-06-04€300kNK Istra 1961
2024-12-23€450kNK Istra 1961
2025-06-25€400kDeportivo Alavés B
2025-10-08€300kDundee United FC
2025-12-10€300kDundee United FC
2026-05-20€400kDundee United FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.914

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 50% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Iovu appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).